In this respect the ruling formula is Drake. It is quite simple, logical and correct in a certain approximation. Since 1961, human knowledge of exoplanets slightly changed and it is time to make another approach to knowledge likelihood of life and civilizations.
I submit for your consideration the following equation.
KC = Ks * (K + Ks) * BP * Km * Co * Rp* Rc
KC - the number of civilizations
Ks - Stars (2 * 10 ^ 11)
K - coefficient of stars and planets with Earth-like temperature conditions favorable for life (0,3)
Ks - coefficient of satellite temperature conditions favorable to life (1)
BP - ratio of favorable thermodynamic equilibrium (0.3)
Km - a favorable ratio coefficient matter on the planet for the spontaneous generation of life (0.000 001) for panspermia (0.2)
Co - factor enabling environment of the planet (0.5)
Rp - coefficient emergence of civilization based on reason (0.9 for the entire period and 0,0001 for the 1 point)
Rc - factor civilizations wishing to contact (0.5)
It turns out
CC = 2 * 10 ^ 11 * 1.3 * 0.3 * 0.000 001 * 0.5*0.0001 * 0.5
KC = 1,95 for the moment and spontaneous life
KC = 3 510 000 000 worlds civilization may have provided the transfer is not their life.
Star rating is taken as the base 200 billion.
K is taken as the basis, on average, every third star can be zemlepodibnu planet in an area favorable for life temperatures.
Ks favorable temperature zone may be the planet unfit for life (eg giant planet) but it may be suitable companion for life and therefore be in a favorable temperature. If you take the experience of our planets giants with a large number of satellites, the number 1 rather cautious and realistic.
CT thermodynamic processes on the planet or companion can go both towards overheating and hypothermia along the way. So taken, only 30% of the planets or satellites go through a balanced way
Km for the spontaneous generation of life need the right ratio of matter and for a long time. If the parameters are close to ideal, life can arise, but it will take more time. One stotysyach planets may have physical and chemical properties for the spontaneous generation of life. And each pyata can have a close relationship ddlya sustaining life.
When active Co. cosmic processes around the world long the existence of life will be very difficult. Center core of the galaxy or supernova proximity. Leave half of applicants by a factor of 0.5.
Kp emergence of civilization based on reason should not be quite rare. On land there are many species endowed with reason, since the emergence of civilization of intelligent beings almost guaranteed event. Let factor of 0.9. At the moment there is only 1 of desyatytysyach civilizations in the history of the galaxy. Judging by the length of a single civilization reasonable people to life on Earth - will have one millionth. Will have the hope that this is only the beginning. We are waiting for millions of years ahead favorable space situation. A situation which we ourselves create. Time will tell. Therefore, the existence of a civilization to life as a lifetime of 1 to 10 000 should be quite adequate.
Rc number of civilizations that will want to go to the contact taken as 0.5. There are 2 options or will want to or not. And some advantages there. Curiosity - inherent in all intelligent beings pull on contact. And fear uberihatyme. Because 50% of all civilizations should be close to the figure.
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